This paper addresses two methods to estimate the target incapacitation distance and probability of the arbitrary fragmentation warhead under the static detonation test condition. One is based on the probability equation suggested by Sperrazza and Kokinakis. The other is originated from the stationary detonation test concept to measure the performance of the fragmentation warhead. In the arbitrary fragmentation warhead, the target incapacitation probabilities obtained from the two methods were compared with each other. We found that the size of the fragment with cubic shape should be more than 3.5 mm to maximize the target incapacitation distance in the test method. And we also realized that the difference between the target incapacitation distance of the analysis method based on the test (AMBT) and that of the analysis method based on the probability equation (AMBPE) is decreased according to the increase of the fragment size. In conclusion, this paper can be useful for the estimation of the fragmentation warhead performance at the design stage.