Prediction of a minimum crack size for growth, which is defined as a crack size that grows fast enough to keep ahead of its removal by contact wear and periodic grinding, is the most demanding work to prevent rail from fatigue failure and develop cost effective railway maintenance strategy. In this study, we investigated the wheel load increment due to a rail defect during a train ran over it, and its effect on the minimum crack size for growth. For this purpose, we developed simulation software based on the Fletcher and Kapoor’s “2.5D” model and measured wheel load increment during a train passed over a defect. A maximum contact pressure and contact patch size were calculated by 3D FEM and crack growth analyses were performed by varying two of dominant contact contributors; surface friction coefficient(0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4) and crack aspect ratio. The minimum crack sizes for growth were calculated from 0.29 to 1.44㎜ depending on the contact conditions. They were decreasing with increasing surface friction coefficient and decreasing with crack aspect ratio(a/b).